Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Grandal to second, Taylor to third.2–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 6Bart homered to left center (372 feet).1–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 3D. Peralta homered to right center (386 feet), Merrill scored.0–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–8
- 3Merrill tripled to right, Cronenworth scored and Machado scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Arraez doubled to left, Wade scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Cronenworth homered to right (348 feet), Arraez scored and Profar scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML PIT +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- SD: Elo 58.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +62 Elo | SD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 32–2816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–56 | 64–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 29–42 |
| Underdog | 45–25 | 34–15 |
| Overs–unders | 57–60 | 65–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–6 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.