Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Yasmani GrandalBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Polanco homered to right center (399 feet).3–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Cruz doubled to center, Bae scored and Taylor scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Grandal homered to right center (404 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Reynolds scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Raley homered to right center (412 feet), Polanco scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML SEA +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 27–3127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–70 | 61–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–52 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 45–26 |
| Overs–unders | 50–68–2 | 58–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 2–1 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.