Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerson GarabitoPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Jung reached on infield single to third, García scored on throwing error by third baseman Miranda.5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 9Santana homered to right (392 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Jung homered to center (420 feet).4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 7García homered to left center (389 feet), Seager scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Seager doubled to right, Semien scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Semien doubled to right, Taveras scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Jeffers singled to left, Castro scored, Larnach to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Jeffers homered to left center (401 feet), Larnach scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Larnach doubled to right, Miranda scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML MIN -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +3 Elo | MIN 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–29 | Road vs home | 31–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–62 | 52–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–46 | 23–47 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders | 62–60 | 57–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–3 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.