Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4
- Gavin WilliamsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rice hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored.0–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Stanton homered to center (417 feet), Soto scored and Judge scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Wells hit sacrifice fly to center, Rice scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 4Judge homered to right (360 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -152
- CLE +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +42 Elo | NYY 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 3035–33 | Road vs home | 33–2815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–60 | 67–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 41–54 |
| Underdog | 35–22 | 26–5 |
| Overs–unders | 64–60–2 | 72–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–7 NYY in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.