Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Eli MorganPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. homered to left center (413 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7J. Naylor singled to right, Ramírez scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Melendez homered to right (343 feet), Pasquantino scored and Perez scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Freeman scored, Kwan to second on passed ball by Perez, Hedges to third on passed ball by Perez.0–2
- 2Freeman scored, Kwan to second on passed ball by Perez, Hedges to third on passed ball by Perez.0–2
- 2Kwan walked, Noel scored, Hedges to second, Freeman to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 40–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -135 / CLE +115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- KC: Elo 47.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Nick Sandlin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 40–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–55 | 68–61 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–33 | 33–39 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 35–22 |
| Overs–unders | 59–68–1 | 66–61–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–9 CLE in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.