Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fry homered to left center (389 feet).2–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Seager homered to left center (393 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Noel scored, Brennan to first on pickoff error by pitcher Leclerc, Brennan picked off second.1–3
- 7Noel scored on pickoff error by pitcher Leclerc, Brennan picked off second.1–3
- 7Noel scored on pickoff error by pitcher Leclerc, Brennan picked off second.1–3
- 5Heim doubled to center, Jung scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Noel homered to center (413 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML TEX +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +33 Elo | CLE 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 3026–39 | Road vs home | 39–213rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–77 | 67–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–51 | 32–39 |
| Underdog | 30–26 | 35–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–69–1 | 66–60–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.