Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Perez homered to center (457 feet), Garcia scored, Witt Jr. scored and Pasquantino scored.9–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 39–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 5Perez homered to left center (402 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 4Schneemann homered to right center (392 feet).4–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4Garcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Blanco scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Hampson singled to center, DeJong scored, Blanco to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Perez grounded out to shortstop, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2DeJong homered to left center (408 feet).1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Ramírez scored on pickoff error by pitcher Marsh, J. Naylor out at second on runner's fielder's choice.0–3
- 1Ramírez scored on pickoff error by pitcher Marsh, J. Naylor out at second on runner's fielder's choice.0–3
- 1Ramírez scored on pickoff error by pitcher Marsh, J. Naylor out at second on runner's fielder's choice.0–3
- 1Ramírez doubled to right, Giménez scored on throwing error by right fielder Blanco and Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML KC +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −13 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 40–223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–56 | 69–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–34 | 33–39 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 59–69–1 | 66–62–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 11–9 CLE in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.