Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Yasmani GrandalBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Grandal homered to right center (393 feet), De La Cruz scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Steer walked, De La Cruz scored, Friedl to second, Stephenson to third.3–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 43–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Friedl sacrificed, India scored, Friedl to first on fielding error by pitcher Beeks, Stephenson to second, De La Cruz to third.2–2
- 7De La Cruz singled to center, Marte scored, De La Cruz to second, India to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Reynolds singled to center, Taylor scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Bart grounded out to second, Kiner-Falefa scored, Cruz to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML CIN -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +5 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +8 Elo | PIT 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3032–33 | Road vs home | 31–3321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–58 | 67–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–35 | 18–33 |
| Underdog | 42–23 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 63–66–1 | 63–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–14 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.