Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Pirates- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grandal homered to center (394 feet).0–7
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 30–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 5Cruz singled to center, De La Cruz scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 5De La Cruz doubled to right, Bart scored, Kiner-Falefa scored and Reynolds scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Bart hit by pitch, Taylor scored, Reynolds to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Reynolds reached on infield single to shortstop, Triolo scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Taylor to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML CIN +125 / PIT -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +15 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +28 Elo | PIT 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 29–3226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–57 | 66–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–35 | 17–31 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 61–65–1 | 61–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–12 PIT in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.