Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julian AguiarPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement homered to left center (407 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 6Fraley doubled to center, France scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6France doubled to center, Friedl scored and Steer scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Steer doubled to center, Stephenson scored, Friedl to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Friedl homered to right (393 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Varsho singled to right, Springer scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to left, Espinal scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (430 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML CIN +130 / TOR -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | CIN: Julian Aguiar (no track record yet) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +32 Elo | TOR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–30 | Road vs home | 29–3122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–56 | 62–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–35 | 23–37 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 58–65–1 | 68–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.