Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger homered to center (418 feet).2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Varsho reached on bunt single to pitcher, Berroa scored, Springer to second.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Busch tripled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Amaya scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Happ homered to center (413 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML TOR +145 / CHC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -156
- TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +7 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +49 Elo | CHC 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 19th of 3029–34 | Road vs home | 33–2712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–62 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 15–40 |
| Underdog | 37–25 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–53–1 | 55–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–3 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.