Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Leo JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Suzuki singled to left, Happ scored, Busch to second.5–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 9Springer tripled to left, Clement scored and Loperfido scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Wagner scored on a balk, Loperfido to second on a balk, Clement to third on a balk.3–5
- 9Wagner scored on a balk, Loperfido to second on a balk, Clement to third on a balk.3–5
- 7Happ homered to center (433 feet).2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Amaya homered to center (426 feet).2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to center (414 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Jimenez homered to center (424 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 4Clement reached on infield single to shortstop, Horwitz scored, Clement to second, Wagner to second, Wagner safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Swanson.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Bellinger homered to right center (404 feet), Happ scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML TOR +110 / CHC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- TOR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −15 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 32–2713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–62 | 59–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 15–39 |
| Underdog | 36–25 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 67–53–1 | 54–66–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.