Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Joey LoperfidoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 2Loperfido homered to right (409 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML TOR +160 / CHC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -170
- TOR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +42 Elo | CHC 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–35 | Road vs home | 34–2711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–62 | 59–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–37 | 15–41 |
| Underdog | 38–25 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 68–54–1 | 55–67–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.