Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching4.1 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Steer singled to left, Fairchild scored, Benson to second.3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 6Stephenson grounded out to third, De La Cruz scored.2–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–10
- 5Springer homered to left (374 feet).1–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 5Jimenez homered to center (410 feet), Loperfido scored.1–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 4Varsho scored on error, Wagner safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Marte, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 3Horwitz homered to right center (380 feet).1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Kirk homered to left (400 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Springer homered to left (358 feet), Barger scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Barger doubled to right, Loperfido scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Marte singled to left, France scored, Fraley to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Wagner singled to right, Varsho scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML CIN +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 55.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +8 | CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +35 Elo | TOR 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 29–3224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–56 | 62–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–35 | 23–38 |
| Underdog | 40–21 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 59–65–1 | 69–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.