Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jimenez doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.11–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–7
- 8De La Cruz homered to left (341 feet).11–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 211–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–6
- 6Stephenson doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.10–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 210–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 6India homered to left (359 feet).9–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 29–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–6
- 6Marte homered to right center (374 feet).8–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–6
- 5Espinal walked, Stephenson scored, France to second, Steer to third.7–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 47–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 37–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 5Stephenson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, De La Cruz scored.6–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 5De La Cruz singled to center, Marte scored and India scored.5–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 5India singled to left, Espinal scored, Marte to second.3–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 30–3221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–57 | 63–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–35 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 60–65–1 | 70–55–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–3 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.