Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Julian AguiarPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Stephenson singled to center, De La Cruz scored.10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6De La Cruz doubled to center, India scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 4India scored on Stratton wild pitch and De La Cruz scored on fielding error by pitcher Stratton.8–2
- 4India scored on Stratton wild pitch and De La Cruz scored on fielding error by pitcher Stratton.8–2
- 4De La Cruz singled to right, Benson scored, De La Cruz to second, India to third.6–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 4Benson reached on infield single to second, Smith scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2Tellez homered to right (437 feet), Bart scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 1France hit sacrifice fly to center, Steer scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Steer doubled to left, Friedl scored and Stephenson scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Friedl singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Friedl to second, Stephenson to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML CIN -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −28 | CIN: Julian Aguiar: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Jake Woodford: team allows 1.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +21 Elo | CIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 31–3221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–58 | 67–59 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–35 | 18–32 |
| Underdog | 41–23 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 62–66–1 | 62–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–14 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.