Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Buck FarmerPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Bart scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 6Bart singled to right, Cruz scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 5Kiner-Falefa grounded out to shortstop, Triolo scored, Bae to third.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5Triolo singled to center, De La Cruz scored.5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5McKinney grounded out to second, Tellez scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5De La Cruz doubled to right, Bart scored, Tellez to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 4Espinal singled to left, Fairchild scored and Rosario scored, Espinal thrown out at second.5–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 15–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Fairchild sacrificed, Steer scored.3–0
- 4France hit sacrifice fly to right, Stephenson scored, Steer to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Stephenson homered to center (436 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML CIN -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | CIN: Buck Farmer (no track record yet) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +5 Elo | PIT 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 30–3222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–58 | 67–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–35 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 40–23 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 61–66–1 | 61–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–13 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.