Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz singled to right, N. Gonzales scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 39–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–5
- 9N. Gonzales doubled to center, Reynolds scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 6De La Cruz homered to center (426 feet).9–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Amaya singled to center, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.9–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 5Crow-Armstrong walked, Bellinger scored, Swanson to second, Hoerner to third.7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 47–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 5Swanson walked, Suzuki scored, Hoerner to second, Bellinger to third.6–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 46–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Swanson homered to center (421 feet), Hoerner scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Hoerner doubled to left, Paredes scored, Hoerner to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Suzuki homered to right (349 feet), Tauchman scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −17 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +44 Elo | CHC 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 32–3423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–67 | 67–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–44 | 18–35 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 60–70–1 | 64–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 14–7 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.