Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Amaya singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Amaya out stretching at second.2–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 7Crow-Armstrong doubled to left, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.2–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 7Swanson reached on infield single to second, Busch scored, Hoerner to second.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Torkelson homered to left center (377 feet), Keith scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Bellinger singled to center, Happ scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Hoerner grounded out to first, Bellinger scored, Busch to second, Suzuki to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 2Amaya homered to left (399 feet), Suzuki scored, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML DET +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +36 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 17th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 35–2913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–60 | 60–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 16–43 |
| Underdog | 51–28 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 66–60 | 56–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.