Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting4-4
- Bryan SammonsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Swanson homered to left center (387 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Bellinger doubled to right, Busch scored and Happ scored, Bellinger thrown out at third.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Dingler singled to center, Torkelson scored, Jung to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML DET +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +8 | DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +50 Elo | CHC 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 34–2813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–59 | 59–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 15–42 |
| Underdog | 50–27 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 65–59 | 55–68–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.