Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Christian BethancourtBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carpenter homered to left center (376 feet), Meadows scored and Greene scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 38–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 9Greene singled to center, McKinstry scored, Meadows to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Bethancourt homered to left (383 feet), Swanson scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Greene homered to right center (422 feet), Meadows scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Sweeney homered to center (414 feet), Jung scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML DET -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 53.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −4 | DET: Beau Brieske: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +22 Elo | CHC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 35–2811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–60 | 60–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–32 | 16–42 |
| Underdog | 50–28 | 44–23 |
| Overs–unders | 65–60 | 55–69–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–3 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.