Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Joe homered to left (398 feet), McKinney scored.18–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play18–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 118–8
- 9Tauchman walked, Wisdom scored, Amaya to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.18–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 418–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 318–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking18–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 218–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 118–6
- 9Amaya hit by pitch, Paredes scored, Crow-Armstrong to second, Wisdom to third.17–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play17–6
- 9Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Bellinger scored.16–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play16–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul16–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 116–6
- 9Paredes singled to left, Suzuki scored, Bellinger to third.15–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play15–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 215–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 115–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking15–6
- 9Bellinger doubled to right, Busch scored, Suzuki to third.14–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 214–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–6
- 9Busch singled to left, Amaya scored.13–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul13–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul13–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul13–6
- 8Triolo hit by pitch, Cruz scored, Grandal to second, De La Cruz to third.12–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 212–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–6
- 8De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to third, McKinney scored, N. Gonzales out at second, Cruz to third.12–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul12–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 212–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–5
- 8Paredes homered to left (409 feet).12–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML CHC -105 / PIT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +10 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +8 Elo | PIT 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 32–3321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–67 | 67–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–44 | 18–34 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 49–27 |
| Overs–unders | 59–70–1 | 63–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 13–7 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.