Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Amaya homered to center (420 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Paredes doubled to left, Suzuki scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Stowers walked, Burger scored, Norby to second, Bride to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 43–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Bride singled to left, Bruján scored, J. Sánchez to second.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Happ homered to center (401 feet), Amaya scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right center (330 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Hill grounded out to third, Norby scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML CHC -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +4 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +31 Elo | CHC 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–36 | Road vs home | 24–4229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–66 | 56–70 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–43 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 54–51 |
| Overs–unders | 57–69–1 | 71–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–6 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.