Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left (414 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Edwards singled to right, Pache scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 5Carroll homered to left (387 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pederson singled to center, Carroll scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML ARI -120 / MIA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 61.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −7 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +82 Elo | ARI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 24–4029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–60 | 56–68 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–35 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 41–25 | 54–49 |
| Overs–unders | 72–53–1 | 70–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–6 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.