Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Dylan CarlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9B. Lowe singled to center, DeLuca scored on fielding error by center fielder McCarthy.4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 9Carroll homered to right (389 feet), Suárez scored.4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Carlson singled to center, J. Lowe scored, Walls to third.2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 8J. Lowe singled to center, Díaz scored and Morel scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Carlson homered to right (379 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to left, McCarthy scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pederson singled to left, Carroll scored, McCarthy to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +18 Elo | ARI 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 3032–27 | Road vs home | 31–3422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–59 | 58–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–34 | 22–37 |
| Underdog | 39–25 | 36–25 |
| Overs–unders | 69–52–1 | 56–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.