Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy singled to left, Carroll scored and Del Castillo scored, Perdomo to second.3–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Bell doubled to left, Perdomo scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Gurriel Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Herrera scored, Perdomo to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Toglia doubled to left, Doyle scored, Rodgers to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Doyle singled to center, Tovar scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Beck singled to left, Rodgers scored, Toglia to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 64%
- ML COL +165 / ARI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 69.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -177
- COL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +10 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +146 Elo | ARI 69.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–44 | Road vs home | 35–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–57 | 62–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 23–33 |
| Underdog | 58–51 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 64–52 | 68–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–16 ARI in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.