Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Newman scored on Kinley wild pitch.4–5
- 7Newman scored on Kinley wild pitch.4–5
- 7Carroll scored on Kinley wild pitch, Newman stole third.4–4
- 7Carroll scored on Kinley wild pitch, Newman stole third.4–4
- 7Carroll scored on Kinley wild pitch, Newman stole third.4–4
- 6McCarthy singled to center, Bell scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Bell doubled to center, Newman scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6Rodgers homered to center (424 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Díaz singled to center, Toglia scored, Cave to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Rodgers hit sacrifice fly to center, Doyle scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Díaz singled to right, Cave scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2McCarthy doubled to left, Bell scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 72%
- ML COL +240 / ARI -300
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 66.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +3 | COL: Bradley Blalock (no track record yet) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +119 Elo | ARI 66.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–43 | Road vs home | 34–2610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–57 | 62–57 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 57–51 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 63–52 | 67–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–15 ARI in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.