Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hilliard doubled to left, Goodman scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–11
- 7Bell grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Carroll scored, Pederson out at second, McCarthy to third.3–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–11
- 6Suárez homered to left center (427 feet), Pederson scored, Bell scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.3–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–10
- 6Goodman grounded out to third, Stallings scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 6Stallings singled to center, Rodgers scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Suárez doubled to center, Del Castillo scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 4Toglia grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Doyle scored, Stallings out at second.1–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 2Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Bell scored on throwing error by right fielder Hilliard, Gurriel Jr. to second.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 1Perdomo walked, Gurriel Jr. scored, Alexander to second, Suárez to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 40–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 1Pederson doubled to right, Carroll scored on error, McCarthy scored on error and Pederson scored on throwing error by first baseman Toglia.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 65%
- ML COL +175 / ARI -210
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 65.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 5.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −16 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +113 Elo | ARI 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 66.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–45 | Road vs home | 36–267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–57 | 62–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 23–34 |
| Underdog | 59–51 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders | 64–53 | 68–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–17 ARI in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.