Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Dubón singled to center, León scored, Meyers to third.2–1
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 8Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Walls scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Peña homered to left center (384 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / TB +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −9 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +27 Elo | HOU 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 31–3321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–56 | 57–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–45 | 22–37 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–65–3 | 56–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–5 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.