Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting2-3
- Taj BradleyPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Meyers grounded into fielder's choice to second, Alvarez scored, Singleton out at second, Peña to third.6–1
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 36–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Caballero hit sacrifice fly to right, Walls scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Y. Diaz homered to left center (408 feet), Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Alvarez singled to center, McCormick scored, Altuve to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Bregman homered to left (356 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML HOU -130 / TB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +5 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +19 Elo | HOU 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 31–3119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–55 | 56–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–44 | 22–37 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 48–63–3 | 56–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–5 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.