Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe grounded out to first, Jackson scored, Carlson to second, Walls to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 11 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 6Peña homered to left center (408 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Bregman homered to left (376 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Y. Diaz singled to center, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2J. Lowe singled to center, Caballero scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML HOU -125 / TB +105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 3.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | 0 | HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +7 Elo | TB 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 13th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 31–3219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–55 | 56–62 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–44 | 22–37 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 34–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–64–3 | 56–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–5 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.