Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Burger homered to left center (390 feet).3–7
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 4Nimmo homered to right (390 feet), Lindor scored and Vientos scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Lindor tripled to right, Bader scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 4McNeil homered to right (380 feet), Alvarez scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 32–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Rivera grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hill scored, Lopez out at second.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Hill doubled to right, Bride scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Martinez singled to left, Nimmo scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 69%
- ML MIA +210 / NYM -260
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.6%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -224
- MIA +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 5.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +10 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +90 Elo | NYM 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 66.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3021–37 | Road vs home | 31–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–65 | 55–64 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 27–40 |
| Underdog | 53–46 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 68–51–1 | 61–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–14 NYM in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.