Oakland Athletics at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-3
- Joey EstesPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alonso doubled to left, Bader scored and Martinez scored.1–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 7Martinez doubled to right, Lindor scored.1–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 7Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to center, Alvarez scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 7Gamel scored on Klein wild pitch, Lindor to second on wild pitch by Klein, Alvarez to third on wild pitch by Klein.1–5
- 7Gamel scored on Klein wild pitch, Lindor to second on wild pitch by Klein, Alvarez to third on wild pitch by Klein.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 7Lindor singled to center, Vientos scored, Alvarez to second, Gamel to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Cameron hit sacrifice fly to center, Andujar scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Alonso homered to left center (417 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Lindor homered to right center (397 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Vientos doubled to left, Winker scored, Alonso to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 65%
- ML OAK +175 / NYM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.6%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -186
- OAK +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.6 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +68 Elo | NYM 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–39 | Road vs home | 30–2918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–56 | 54–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 55–47 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 56–63 | 59–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–3 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.