Oakland Athletics at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe BoylePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mets- Jesse WinkerBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Langeliers doubled to left, Bleday scored, Andujar to third.9–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–4
- 6Andujar reached on infield single to first, Rooker scored, Bleday to third.8–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 5Alonso singled to center, Nimmo scored and Winker scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 5Winker doubled to center, Lindor scored, Nimmo to third.7–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 3Langeliers homered to left center (406 feet), Bleday scored and Andujar scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 3Andujar grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rooker scored on fielding error by third baseman Iglesias, Bleday safe at third on error.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Iglesias singled to right, Martinez scored, McNeil to second.3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 1Brown doubled to center, Langeliers scored, Rooker scored and Bleday scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML OAK +150 / NYM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -161
- OAK +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | OAK: Joe Boyle: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +90 Elo | NYM 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 28th of 3021–39 | Road vs home | 30–2818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–56 | 54–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 26–38 |
| Underdog | 54–47 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 55–63 | 58–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 0–3 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.