Oakland Athletics at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Brown singled to right, Langeliers scored, Gelof to second.7–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 6Nevin grounded out to second, Bleday scored, Langeliers to third.6–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Gelof scored on Brazoban wild pitch, Brown to second on wild pitch by Brazoban.5–6
- 5Gelof scored on Brazoban wild pitch, Brown to second on wild pitch by Brazoban.5–6
- 4Vientos homered to right (371 feet).4–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 4Bleday homered to right (357 feet), Schuemann scored, Cameron scored and Andujar scored.4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Torrens singled to left, Alonso scored and Martinez scored, McNeil to third.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Vientos homered to right center (406 feet), Lindor scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Alonso scored on Spence wild pitch, McNeil to third on wild pitch by Spence.0–1
- 2Alonso scored on Spence wild pitch, McNeil to third on wild pitch by Spence.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML OAK +160 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 61.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- OAK +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +79 Elo | NYM 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–40 | Road vs home | 31–2918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–57 | 55–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–9 | 27–39 |
| Underdog | 55–48 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 57–63 | 60–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–4 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.