Miami Marlins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Derek HillBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hill singled to left, Bride scored, Hill to second, J. Sánchez to third.3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Hill scored on Brazoban wild pitch, Rivera to second on wild pitch by Brazoban.2–2
- 7Hill scored on Brazoban wild pitch, Rivera to second on wild pitch by Brazoban.2–2
- 6Nimmo homered to right center (425 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5Lindor singled to left, Winker scored, Iglesias to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Fortes hit sacrifice fly to center, Lopez scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 64%
- ML MIA +165 / NYM -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.0%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -177
- MIA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +70 Elo | NYM 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 3021–39 | Road vs home | 33–3017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–67 | 57–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 29–40 |
| Underdog | 53–48 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 69–52–1 | 62–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 9–16 NYM in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.