Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting2-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edwards doubled to right, Stowers scored.9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 9Fortes hit sacrifice fly to right, Lopez scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 8McCarthy homered to right center (398 feet), Carroll scored.9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 7Del Castillo singled to right, Pederson scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.7–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Stowers singled to center, Norby scored, Lopez to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 6Norby grounded into fielder's choice to third, J. Sánchez scored, Hill out at second.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Edwards grounded out to second, Stowers scored, Fortes to second.5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 5Pederson homered to right (411 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 3Fortes homered to left (402 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Del Castillo homered to center (414 feet), McCarthy scored, Gurriel Jr. scored and Smith scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML ARI -215 / MIA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -191
- MIA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −4 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Adam Oller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +69 Elo | ARI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–30 | Road vs home | 24–3929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–60 | 56–67 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 41–25 | 54–48 |
| Overs–unders | 71–53–1 | 69–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–6 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.