Arizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 12Carlson singled to left, Jackson scored, Walls to second.7–8
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–8
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 10Walls singled to left, Jackson scored, Walls out stretching at third.7–7
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pederson singled to center, Carroll scored, McCarthy to third.7–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 9Del Castillo homered to right center (406 feet), McCarthy scored and Pederson scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Carroll homered to right center (422 feet), Newman scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6DeLuca scored on Mantiply wild pitch, Morel to second on wild pitch by Mantiply, Walls to third on wild pitch by Mantiply.0–6
- 6DeLuca scored on Mantiply wild pitch, Morel to second on wild pitch by Mantiply, Walls to third on wild pitch by Mantiply.0–6
- 5Caminero reached on infield single to pitcher, Caballero scored on error, Caminero safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Kelly.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Caballero doubled to left, B. Lowe scored and Morel scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3B. Lowe homered to right (405 feet), Morel scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 3.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +14 Elo | ARI 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 33–3420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–60 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–35 | 22–38 |
| Underdog | 40–25 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders | 70–53–1 | 57–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–4 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.