Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Sánchez scored on Martinez wild pitch, Lopez to second on wild pitch by Martinez, Hill to third on wild pitch by Martinez.10–8
- 9J. Sánchez scored on Martinez wild pitch, Lopez to second on wild pitch by Martinez, Hill to third on wild pitch by Martinez.10–8
- 9Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Herrera scored.10–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–7
- 9Herrera tripled to left, Newman scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging9–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 8Bruján doubled to left, Hensley scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 8Perdomo homered to right (415 feet).8–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 38–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 7Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Grichuk scored, Pederson scored and Bell scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–6
- 7Bell singled to left, Carroll scored, Pederson to second.4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 4Edwards tripled to right, Hensley scored.3–6
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 4Pache homered to left (374 feet), Lopez scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 60%
- ML ARI -165 / MIA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ARI -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −11 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +63 Elo | ARI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 24–4129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–60 | 56–69 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–35 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 41–25 | 54–50 |
| Overs–unders | 72–54–1 | 70–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–6 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.