Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ hit a ground rule double, Tauchman scored.2–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 8Hill singled to left, Stowers scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–7
- 8Stowers doubled to right, Lopez scored.1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Lopez doubled to center, Burger scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Bride hit sacrifice fly to right, Norby scored, Burger to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3J. Sánchez grounded out to first, Norby scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Bethancourt singled to right, Swanson scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 1J. Sánchez homered to center (420 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Norby homered to right (352 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML CHC -180 / MIA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −13 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Adam Oller: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +85 Elo | CHC 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–36 | Road vs home | 24–4429th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–66 | 56–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 19–43 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 54–53 |
| Overs–unders | 59–69–1 | 73–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–6 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.