Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wisdom homered to left (395 feet), Tauchman scored.14–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–2
- 8Busch walked, Wisdom scored, Vázquez to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.12–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 412–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 312–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 212–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 112–2
- 8Crow-Armstrong hit a ground rule double, Tauchman scored, Wisdom to third.11–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–2
- 7Bellinger doubled to right, Suzuki scored.10–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 310–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking10–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 210–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 7Suzuki tripled to right, Busch scored.9–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 29–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 7Busch doubled to right, Amaya scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 5Hensley homered to right center (395 feet).7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 5Busch reached on infield single to pitcher, Amaya scored on throwing error by pitcher McMillon and Happ scored on error, Busch to second.7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to right (437 feet), Swanson scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 4Norby homered to center (417 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Suzuki homered to left center (446 feet), Busch scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML CHC -200 / MIA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -177
- MIA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 3.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +12 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Valente Bellozo: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +47 Elo | CHC 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 21st of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 24–4329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–66 | 56–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–43 | 2–19 |
| Underdog | 44–23 | 54–52 |
| Overs–unders | 58–69–1 | 72–54–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–6 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.