Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christian BethancourtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki singled to center, Happ scored, Tauchman to third.14–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 214–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–10
- 9Tauchman singled to center, Bethancourt scored, Happ to third.13–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 213–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 113–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–10
- 9Happ singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Bethancourt to third.12–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging12–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 212–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–10
- 9Bethancourt singled to left, Swanson scored and Vázquez scored, Crow-Armstrong to second.11–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–10
- 9Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bellinger scored, Hoerner out at second, Vázquez to third.9–10
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 39–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging9–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–10
- 8Happ singled to center, Bethancourt scored.8–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–10
- 8Bethancourt doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored and Swanson scored.7–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–10
- 7Bethancourt homered to center (431 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.5–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 5Joe singled to left, Reynolds scored on error and Cruz scored on fielding error by left fielder Happ, Joe to second.3–10
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 61%
- ML CHC +145 / PIT -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -156
- CHC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +22 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +12 Elo | PIT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 32–3524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–67 | 67–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–44 | 18–35 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 49–28 |
| Overs–unders | 61–70–1 | 65–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 15–7 PIT in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.