Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Thomas scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 7Noel singled to left, J. Naylor scored, Brennan to second.5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 7Brennan singled to center, Giménez scored, J. Naylor to second.5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7J. Naylor singled to center, Kwan scored, Giménez to second.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 7Bo Naylor homered to right center (379 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Garcia singled to center, DeJong scored, Isbel to second.5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Frazier singled to center, Melendez scored, DeJong to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Kwan reached on infield single to shortstop, Noel scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left (385 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1J. Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Giménez scored, Ramírez out at second.2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (378 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Massey homered to right (351 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML KC +130 / CLE -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +14 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 40–243rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–56 | 69–63 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–34 | 33–41 |
| Underdog | 42–22 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–70–1 | 67–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 13–9 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.