Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting3-5
- Luis OrtizPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting1-4
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tellez singled to right, N. Gonzales scored and Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4McCutchen singled to right, N. Gonzales scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 63%
- ML PIT +160 / CLE -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +2 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +50 Elo | CLE 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 42–243rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–65 | 71–63 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–36 | 35–41 |
| Underdog | 49–29 | 36–22 |
| Overs–unders | 67–65 | 69–63–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.