Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña singled to center, Altuve scored and Diaz scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 8Diaz doubled to center, Dubón scored, Altuve to third.2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 7Witt Jr. homered to left (385 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 6Alvarez homered to center (404 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Gurriel singled to left, Melendez scored, Fermin to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Singleton homered to right (396 feet), Gamel scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Alvarez homered to right (369 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML KC +140 / HOU -165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- KC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +1 | KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +67 Elo | HOU 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 15th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 38–298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–59 | 68–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 33–34 | 41–53 |
| Underdog | 43–25 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–72–1 | 55–75–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–4 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.