Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Paul DeJongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Astros- Ben GamelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Altuve doubled to left, Meyers scored.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 9DeJong homered to left center (365 feet), Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 8Peña hit sacrifice fly to center, Diaz scored.0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Gamel homered to left center (356 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML KC +165 / HOU -200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -177
- KC +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +18 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +79 Elo | HOU 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 36–2913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–58 | 67–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 33–34 | 40–52 |
| Underdog | 42–24 | 27–12 |
| Overs–unders | 62–70–1 | 55–73–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 8–2 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.