Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meyers hit sacrifice fly to right, Gamel scored, Dezenzo to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Diaz homered to left center (455 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Bregman homered to left (397 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Urías homered to center (416 feet), Jiménez scored and Rivera scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Dezenzo doubled to left, Gamel scored and Caratini scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Caratini singled to center, Peña scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML HOU -110 / BAL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −5 | HOU: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 3032–31 | Road vs home | 39–2910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–63 | 71–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–52 | 47–51 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 24–8 |
| Overs–unders | 52–71–3 | 73–55–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–5 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 12.