Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías tripled to center, Slater scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 8Santander homered to right center (403 feet), Cowser scored, Rutschman scored and Henderson scored.5–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 6Peña homered to left center (418 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 3Cowser homered to right (387 feet).4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 3Meyers singled to left, Peña scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Peña doubled to left, Diaz scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Altuve homered to right center (382 feet), Dezenzo scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Urías grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Santander scored on error, Mullins safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Peña, Mullins safe at third on error.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / BAL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- BAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −20 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 37–2910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–62 | 70–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–51 | 47–50 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 23–8 |
| Overs–unders | 51–70–3 | 72–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–3 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.