Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Refsnyder homered to left (360 feet).2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Rafaela singled to left, Casas scored, Yoshida to second, Devers to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Henderson homered to right center (395 feet), O'Hearn scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 6O'Hearn grounded into fielder's choice to first, Urías scored on throwing error by shortstop Rafaela, Cowser out at second.0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Rutschman homered to right center (358 feet).0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML BOS +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 58.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +61 Elo | BAL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3036–25 | Road vs home | 36–2810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–68 | 66–57 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 46–49 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 65–56–2 | 71–50–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–13 BAL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.