Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cowser doubled to center, McCann scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Mountcastle singled to center, Santander scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Mullins homered to right (382 feet).1–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Henderson homered to right (403 feet), Santander scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Abreu homered to right (412 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML BOS +135 / BAL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -145
- BOS +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +68 Elo | BAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–24 | Road vs home | 35–269th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–67 | 65–55 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 21–45 | 45–47 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 20–8 |
| Overs–unders | 64–54–2 | 70–48–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–12 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.